Assumptions?

[Low Drag]

What assumptions have you made in your training? We all have limited time and funds, as a result we can’t train all the time. Even if we could, would it be possible to “know it all”? So given the constraints of everyday life, I must focus my training for a “likely situation”.

I’m making a lot of assumptions in order to get here, namely I’m gambling on what I think is a likely scenario and then, at least I hope, evaluate objectively on the skills I’ll need. Then come up with a road map to get there, project mgmt if you will. Assess where I am, where I want to be and then lay out a way to get there. Then of course act upon all those assumptions and conclusions.

We can get information from crime stats, but they really don’t provide much on the details of civilian shootings/self defense. I’m thinking a guy like John Lott would have a great deal of data on the topic, or Gary Kleck. A lot of crime stats become political right from the start at the reporting agency. Then there’s the pro and anti gun “studies”. As my stat prof said, “figures don’t lie, but liars can figure”.

So where can I get my hands on some good information to challenge my assumptions and provide a reality check on my training? Or am I simply nuts using this methodology?

What assumptions have you built in?

[Guantes]

LD,
You will use the methodology that you believe will get you to where you want to be.

Although I do dable with scenarios to check/improve my resolution skills, I view the overall picture somewhat differently than specifically in a scenario context.
I look to the skills that will be beneficial regardless of the scenario.

Awareness coupled with experience to identify possible threats and evaluate them
Verbal and demeanor de-escalation and escalation/control skills
Physical conditioning
Empty hand skills
Non-firearm weapon skills
Firearm skills
Driving skills

These are the attributes that, some or all of which will be used in almost any situation. How broad each catagory becomes is dependent on the priority given it and the time/assets available.
Just my .02.

[JMusic]

I have developed assumptions from past experiences of mine and others. For Example
I seldom carry a reload
I sometimes carry sub caliber guns
I assume that I will recognise a threat prior to it happening

To assure that I will not walk into danger I stay out of area's that breed trouble. I carry weapons on me and in briefcases, cars, coats, and have them set throughout the house. I have several layers of security with dogs, lights, etc... I am of the mind set that a handgun is made to fight your way to a long gun. We "my wife and I' are private people and enjoy staying home most of the time. Hope this helps
Jim

[kilogulf59]

I have developed assumptions from past experiences of mine and others. For Example
I seldom carry a reload
I sometimes carry sub caliber guns
I assume that I will recognise a threat prior to it happening

To assure that I will not walk into danger I stay out of area's that breed trouble. I carry weapons on me and in briefcases, cars, coats, and have them set throughout the house. I have several layers of security with dogs, lights, etc... I am of the mind set that a handgun is made to fight your way to a long gun. We "my wife and I' are private people and enjoy staying home most of the time. Hope this helps
Jim

Good topic Low drag.

Essentially, I agree with Jim. My personal exceptions are:

§ “A handgun is made to fight your way to a long gun.” I do not assume “it” will last that long and long-guns are too cumbersome in the house. I do have my M500 should I ever need it though.
§ “I seldom carry a reload.” I have been carrying a speed-strip in my pocket, just in case.

These are not argumentative points; that is just the way it is.

In addition, I have preached awareness to my family for years, a.k.a. “condition yellow” if I may quote Col. Copper here. Therefore, I too assume I will spot the problem and avoid it.

As of late I have been visualizing two assailants instead of one. This I mentioned previously in another thread.

[Low Drag]

I have developed assumptions from past experiences of mine and others. For Example
I seldom carry a reload
I sometimes carry sub caliber guns
I assume that I will recognise a threat prior to it happening

To assure that I will not walk into danger I stay out of area's that breed trouble. I carry weapons on me and in briefcases, cars, coats, and have them set throughout the house. I have several layers of security with dogs, lights, etc... I am of the mind set that a handgun is made to fight your way to a long gun. We "my wife and I' are private people and enjoy staying home most of the time. Hope this helps
Jim

So what experiences/assumptions lead you to these conclusions?

I'm thinking if we get a bunch of posts with assumptions, when we see a bunch of folks repeating the same ones I think I should pay attention.

Thoughts? I can start if you like.....

[Dave James]

Assumptions????

Ever one in the world is an asses hat ,, but you and me.

BUT I'M BEGANING TO WORRY ABOUT YOU!!!!! :D

[JMusic]

Low Drag I'm not sure if you are asking me my qualifications but basicly I'm a rednecked hillbilly raised by several rednecked hillbillies!!! Just kidding. I have been in the Martial and LE. sports most my life, mostly in plain clothes with limitted assetts. We talk of guns and secure area's and shooting. No talk of mind set, phycological preperation of the BG, anticipation, knowing what they/he is going to do, what happens to a predator once they realize they do not have sheep to attack how to lure them in. So on and so forth. I have done ALL this. Do you have the capability to almost kill someone with just your hands? I do and have paractical application of the sport:D . Have you talked your way out of gun fights? I have. Have you disarmed people? I have. I not braggin I have been extremely lucky my whole life. I'm very quick, good fighter, good shot, and don't look like a warrior. All advantages. That is why I have these conclusions. Now this is everyday life in a rural area. When I go to town I have a Kimber CDP Pro that I purchased Sept. 12th 2001. I hope I get to use it for what it was purchased for. That my friend is my assumptions and mind set.
Jim

[Guantes]

JM, you can be my partner anytime.:)

LD,
I guess I misunderstood your initial question, so I will try again.
Mine are as follows:
1. I may miss it coming down, although I will try not to.
2. It will come at the most inopportune moment.
3. It will not be an even sided event.
4. No one will jump in to help me.
5. I will probably get hurt.
6. I will win.

Is this closer to what you were thinking?

[Low Drag]

JM, you can be my partner anytime.:)

LD,
I guess I misunderstood your initial question, so I will try again.
Mine are as follows:
1. I may miss it coming down, although I will try not to.
2. It will come at the most inopportune moment.
3. It will not be an even sided event.
4. No one will jump in to help me.
5. I will probably get hurt.
6. I will win.

Is this closer to what you were thinking?
I'm very close to you on this. I'm 6'1" over 230, if I'm paying attention in nice bright YELLOW I think most would look for an easier target. So #1 seems on track.
# 2 & 3, I figure I'm not going to be attacked by one guy and #4, no one is going to help me.
I like 5 & 6.

I also think it will be a close affair to very close. Say 7 yards down to contact distance. The chances of me shooting 3 car lengths are pretty slim, but it could happen. I will fight/move to postion of advantage, independant of H2H or handgun. Bottom line unless I'm in a great spot I will be moving/fighting towards a great spot. I figure I will not be assaulted if I'm in a good spot.

Therefore I do most of my training inside 7 yards and move. That's a high altitude pass at mach 1, not much detail......

[JMusic]

Guantes likewise. Bring us some gloves with you:D :D
Jim

[Guantes]

LD,
Not having the size advantage (5'8"-165), old (64 soon) and forty years in and around LE I keep my Yellow lit most of the time. Even so I have never been mistaken as a sheep, the wife says I could melt people with my eyes. Agree re the seven yds and in for most trng.

JM,
Always got spare gloves.

[David Williams]

I ALWAYS assume that I'm going to be having a bad-hair day, wearing a dress and in high-heels... wait....

wrong forum....:D


Seriously - I explained my "SA" mindset to Brownie one night and he got a good laugh out of it:

THINK like everyone you meet wants to kill you, just don't ACT that way.
Have a plan to kill everyone you meet.


Basically just an example of that Marine humor - where there's a lesson buried in it somewhere... but it's really saying (like Guantes) to keep that Yellow light lit all the time.
It's about making yourself answer questions like:
What would I do if that guy over there tried to grab my wife?
What would I do if that guy in line pulled a gun?
What would I do if the guy in the car in front of me started shooting?
What would I do if that guy suddenly charged me?
What would I do if... well - you get the idea.

Running your mind through those exercises will help keep you mentally sharp and it will give you another reason to notice the things around you.

To me, the mental exercises are the second-half to the training you do at the range, and are REALLY where most of the "scenarios" should be played out.

[JMusic]

David not trying to be a smart a$$ but if everyone wants to kill you maybe you need to work on your people skills.:D

[Brownie]

It's about making yourself answer questions like:
What would I do if that guy over there tried to grab my wife?
What would I do if that guy in line pulled a gun?
What would I do if the guy in the car in front of me started shooting?
What would I do if that guy suddenly charged me?
What would I do if... well - you get the idea.

Running your mind through those exercises will help keep you mentally sharp and it will give you another reason to notice the things around you.

I have drilled into my wife this very thing. I keep it simple and tell her "forethought goes a long way", she's finally catching on after all these years;)

[JMusic]

My wife knows to sit down on the concrete if I'm around. Lay down if possible.

[JMusic]

I found if you had some experience you could imagine almost all logical choices that wil be made. I do this automatically when I walk into an area that I have not been in before. I even drive around the parking lot parking. My brother was down for Easter. We don't get to spent much time together anymore but it is scary how close we think. I worried about him for a while he was too compassionate. After being cut and shot at a few times his mind set has changed. He is more like me. I do VERY little talkin seldom saying things twice. David stated that he considered everyone was out to kill him. I believe that is the case. Any altercation could result in the loss of your life and you should treat it that way. The longer I was in LE the more violent I became. I did not harrass the normal population but if you did not show respect to the badge... well you've read some of my stories. Enough said.
Jim

[David Williams]

David not trying to be a smart a$$ but if everyone wants to kill you maybe you need to work on your people skills.:D

Yeah there's no doubt about that! :p
Wanna talk about people skills? I still count people in cars on the road! Older guy with his wife and kids? - he's probably ok. Two young guys in an old beater? - keep an eye on those two. I still scan the shoulders of the road, and I recently realized that I really have a problem sitting in my car when I get pulled over.


I have drilled into my wife this very thing. I keep it simple and tell her "forethought goes a long way", she's finally catching on after all these years

You know - I even did the same thing with my boys in Iraq. We'd be driving down a crowded street and I'd holler up at my gunner:

"Hey, ___! What would you do if some guy leaned out of that two-story with an RPK??"
"Hey, ___! What would you do if that car in the other lane suddenly changed course to intercept our hummer?"
blah, blah blah....

Or my driver:
"Hey, ___! What would you do if that kid over there tossed a grenade this way?"
"Hey, ___! What would you do if an IED detonated at that corner 10m up?"


It never ends, it gets your brain to work through things. After all - surviving is a thinking man's game. :cool:

[Guantes]

The mind is just like any other tool in the box, if you don't work it, it gets stale.

[Low Drag]

Yeah there's no doubt about that! :p
Wanna talk about people skills? I still count people in cars on the road! Older guy with his wife and kids? - he's probably ok. Two young guys in an old beater? - keep an eye on those two. I still scan the shoulders of the road, and I recently realized that I really have a problem sitting in my car when I get pulled over.




You know - I even did the same thing with my boys in Iraq. We'd be driving down a crowded street and I'd holler up at my gunner:

"Hey, ___! What would you do if some guy leaned out of that two-story with an RPK??"
"Hey, ___! What would you do if that car in the other lane suddenly changed course to intercept our hummer?"
blah, blah blah....

Or my driver:
"Hey, ___! What would you do if that kid over there tossed a grenade this way?"
"Hey, ___! What would you do if an IED detonated at that corner 10m up?"


It never ends, it gets your brain to work through things. After all - surviving is a thinking man's game. :cool:

Ah, great minds........
My troops ate it up when I tossed out the "what ifs". Got them thinking and they loved it. Gave me a warm fuzzy too when they started to "get it".